• Sara Sahnoune Laboratory of Bioclimatic Architecture and Environment, Faculty of Architecture and Urban Planning, University of Constantine 3 Salah Boubnider, Constantine, Algeria
  • Khellaf Imane Institute of Sciences and Technology; University Center Abdelhafid Boussouf, Mila, Algeria
  • Meghzili Marwa Institute of Sciences and Technology; University Center Abdelhafid Boussouf, Mila, Algeria
Keywords: Climate Change, Extreme Precipitation Events, Statistical Analysis, Semi-Arid Climate


Extreme precipitation events are critical climatic indicators that offer substantial insights into climate change and its variability. This study aims to investigate whether climate change has impacted precipitation frequencies in the Constantine region of Algeria, known for its semi-arid climate with hot-dry summers and cold-wet winters. Temporal variations of monthly air temperature and precipitation were analyzed from 1981 to 2014. Statistical analysis identified a threshold for estimating monthly extreme precipitation during the period from 1981 to 2005 using the Gumbel distribution method. Additionally, a climatic projection of precipitation for return periods of 50 (t = 50) and 100 (t = 100) years was conducted to forecast extreme precipitation values in the future. The results indicate a gradual increase in precipitation levels during the study period, with values generally remaining below extreme thresholds. This suggests no significant escalation in the occurrence of extreme precipitation events. Furthermore, the findings highlight that climate change has had a more pronounced impact on altering air temperature than on influencing extreme precipitation trends.


Anagnostopoulou, C., & Tolika, K. (2012). Extreme precipitation in Europe: Statistical threshold selection based on climatological criteria. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 107(3–4), 479–489.

Barbero, R., Fowler, H. J., Lenderink, G., & Blenkinsop, S. (2017). Is the intensification of precipitation extremes with global warming better detected at hourly than daily resolutions?. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(2), 974-983.

Boudiaf, B., Dabanli, I., Boutaghane, H., & Şen, Z. (2020). Temperature and precipitation risk assessment under climate change effect in northeast Algeria. Earth Systems and Environment, 4, 1-14.

Bourenane, H., & Bouhadad, Y. (2021). Impact of land use changes on landslides occurrence in urban area: the case of the Constantine City (NE Algeria). Geotechnical and Geological Engineering, 39(6), 1-21.

Donat, M. G., Lowry, A. L., Alexander, L. V., O’Gorman, P. A., & Maher, N. (2016). More extreme precipitation in the world’s dry and wet regions. Nature Climate Change, 6(5), 508-513.

Farah, A. K., & Benderradji, M. E. (2014). Changement climatique ou variabilité climatique dans l'Est algérien (Doctoral dissertation).

Gimeno, L., Sorí, R., Vazquez, M., Stojanovic, M., Algarra, I., Eiras‐Barca, J., ... & Nieto, R. (2022). Extreme precipitation events. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, 9(6), e1611.

Guerroudj, A. (2023). Weather Parameter Trends and Variability of the Water Balance in Constantine State, Algeria. The Arab World Geographer, 26(3-4), 301-315.

Khellaf, D., & Abdou, S. (2021). Quantification urban heat island (UHI) using the local climate zone classification (LCZ): A case study in Constantine. Revue Nature et Technologie, 13(01), 15-15.

Koutsoyiannis, D. (2003, October). On the appropriateness of the Gumbel distribution for modelling extreme precipitation. In Proceedings of the ESF LESC Exploratory Workshop held at Bologna (pp. 24-25)

Lazoglou, G., Anagnostopoulou, C., Tolika, K., & Kolyva-Machera, F. (2019). A review of statistical methods to analyze extreme precipitation and temperature events in the Mediterranean region. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 136, 99-117.

Liu, J., Zhou, Z., Yan, Z., Gong, J., Jia, Y., Xu, C. Y., & Wang, H. (2019). A new approach to separating the impacts of climate change and multiple human activities on water cycle processes based on a distributed hydrological model. Journal of Hydrology, 578, 124096.

Li, W., Jiang, Z., Zhang, X., & Li, L. (2018). On the emergence of anthropogenic signal in extreme precipitation change over China. Geophysical Research Letters, 45(17), 9179-9185. .

Peel, M. C., Finlayson, B. L., & McMahon, T. A. (2007). Updated world map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification. Hydrology and earth system sciences, 11(5), 1633-1644.

Sahabi Abed, S., & Matzarakis, A. (2017). Seasonal regional differentiation of human thermal comfort conditions in Algeria. Advances in Meteorology, 2017, 1-14.

Sahnoune, S., Benhassine, N., Bourbia, F., & Hadbaoui, H. (2021). Quantifying the effect of green-roof and urban green infrastructure ratio on urban heat island mitigation-semi-arid climate. Journal of Fundamental and Applied Sciences, 13(1), 199-224.

Sun, Q., Zhang, X., Zwiers, F., Westra, S., & Alexander, L. V. (2021). A global, continental, and regional analysis of changes in extreme precipitation. Journal of Climate, 34(1), 243-258.

Taïbi, S., Zeroual, A., & Meddi, M. (2022). Effect of autocorrelation on temporal trends in air-temperature in Northern Algeria and links with teleconnections patterns. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 147(3), 959-984.





How to Cite
Sara Sahnoune, Khellaf Imane, & Meghzili Marwa. (2024). ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECT ON EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENT IN CONSTANTINE ALGERIA. International Journal of Innovative Technologies in Social Science, (2(42).