ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECT ON EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENT IN CONSTANTINE ALGERIA

  • Sara Sahnoune Laboratory of Bioclimatic Architecture and Environment, Faculty of Architecture and Urban Planning, University of Constantine 3 Salah Boubnider, Constantine, Algeria https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7601-9582
  • Khellaf Imane Institute of Sciences and Technology; University Center Abdelhafid Boussouf, Mila, Algeria
  • Meghzili Marwa Institute of Sciences and Technology; University Center Abdelhafid Boussouf, Mila, Algeria
Keywords: Climate Change, Extreme Precipitation Events, Statistical Analysis, Semi-Arid Climate

Abstract

Extreme precipitation events are critical climatic indicators that offer substantial insights into climate change and its variability. This study aims to investigate whether climate change has impacted precipitation frequencies in the Constantine region of Algeria, known for its semi-arid climate with hot-dry summers and cold-wet winters. Temporal variations of monthly air temperature and precipitation were analyzed from 1981 to 2014. Statistical analysis identified a threshold for estimating monthly extreme precipitation during the period from 1981 to 2005 using the Gumbel distribution method. Additionally, a climatic projection of precipitation for return periods of 50 (t = 50) and 100 (t = 100) years was conducted to forecast extreme precipitation values in the future. The results indicate a gradual increase in precipitation levels during the study period, with values generally remaining below extreme thresholds. This suggests no significant escalation in the occurrence of extreme precipitation events. Furthermore, the findings highlight that climate change has had a more pronounced impact on altering air temperature than on influencing extreme precipitation trends.

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Published
2024-04-23
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How to Cite
Sara Sahnoune, Khellaf Imane, & Meghzili Marwa. (2024). ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECT ON EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENT IN CONSTANTINE ALGERIA. International Journal of Innovative Technologies in Social Science, (2(42). https://doi.org/10.31435/rsglobal_ijitss/30062024/8128