ANTICIPATED TRENDS OF GEORGIA’S INTEGRATION WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION

Abstract

Purpose of the Article. It is known that countries wishing to affiliate with EU must meet certain criteria. We set demonstration of the expectations for Georgia to get close to these criteria as goal of our paper meaning that we aim fixing real indicators based on calculated forecasts.
Methodology/methods. The study used methods of statistical survey, grouping and analysis: mean-value, time series and prediction. Leveling and prediction were done by simple methods based on average absolute increase and mean annual growth rate. Linear function was used as analytical method; autoregression and creeping mean ARIMA-type model were used as complex methods by adding a trend component identified with computer software Eviews-6.
Scientific aim. Scientific aim of the paper was to thoroughly analyze criteria needed for EU- association, such as GDP per capita, unemployment and inflation rates, percentage value of country’s total foreign debt to GDP, indicators of state budgetary deficit, calculate predictive values of each indicator and identify expected trends of approaching EU countries.
Results. Of the major indicators for EU-association, Georgia is likely to meet three: the share of foreign debt will not exceed 60% of GDP, inflation rate will be maintained as single-digit and joint budgetary deficit will not exceed 3% of GDP. As for other two requirements, GDP per capita of 10-12 thousand USD and maximum 10% rate of unemployment, Georgia is unlikely to meet them.
Conclusions. Thus, of the requirements for Georgia to integrate with EU, the country will likely to reach three: rate of inflation will be maintained as single digit, joint budget deficit will not exceed 3% of GDP and foreign debt of the country will not exceed 60% of GDP. As for other criteria, their major indicators in Georgia still fall back EU countries.