THE GRAVITATIONAL MODEL OF THE MONGOLIAN FOREIGN TRADE
Abstract
The article presents an analysis of Mongolia's foreign trade using econometric gravity modeling tools as a popular tool for analyzing international trade flows. To create a model for the development of the Mongolian economy in the context of modern globalization processes, the authors studied exogenous and endogenous models of economic growth. To develop the gravity model of the Mongolian Economy, the current state of Mongolia’s foreign trade was studied in the context of the economic situation of the 10 countries of Mongolia’s trading partners that most strongly influence the gross trade of Mongolia. The statistics of the Customs Administration and the National Statistical Committee of Mongolia are used, as well as macroeconomic indicators of the countries of the world. When building the model, the main assumptions of the gravitational theory were used, that trade flows positively depend on the size of the GDP of the countries of foreign trade partners, therefore, for the regression analysis, the GDP sizes of 10 active partners of Mongolia are taken. Alternative methods of resistance to foreign trade are also considered, in particular the distance indicator.
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