EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF IMPACTS ON CHINA AND MONGOLIAN TRANSPORT SERVICE TRADE OF INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS

This paper aims to make an empirical analysis of the impact of international competitiveness on China and Mongolia's transportation service trade. First, calculating the RCA competitiveness index, China, Mongolia and some developed countries are compared and analyzed, and then an empirical analysis of the main factors influencing China and Mongolia transportation service trade is conducted, and it is concluded that the port freight export volume increased by 1%, China-Mongolia port freight export volume increased by 0.798%. When the opening of the transportation service industry in China and Mongolia increased by 1%, the export value of the transportation service trade increased by 1.232%. Therefore, the port exports of the two countries have a positive impact on the international competitiveness of the transportation service trade and the opening degree of the transportation service industry in China and Mongolia.


Introduction.
In recent years, some scholars in Mongolia have begun to study the international competitiveness of transportation service trade from different perspectives. Due to the current status and challenges of transportation logistics in Mongolian transportation countries, and the fact that transportation logistics is limited to railways and Zamyn Uud port, Mongolian economic scientists S. Batkhurel, S. Munkhchimeg and T. Tuvshingerel (2012) was research policies and laws environment, unified regulations, and the responsible for these issues have suggested that the solution to the problem is a management issue, not a source of funds and capital. They also emphasized the need to work closely with an international organization as a landlocked country. Mongolia Post Co., Ltd. explained in a securities manual (2014) that the price of Mongolian consumer goods is relatively high and fluctuates largely because of the development of the logistics industry. It also proposed the establishment of a Mongolian transportation and logistics center in the Zamyn Uud Free Trade Zone. It is possible to provide logistics services in the direction of Zamyn Uud-Ulaanbaatar, Zamyn Uud-Rural, and Ulaanbaatar-Rural.
The head of the Mongolian Logistics Association A. Munkhbold (2012) was research the development level of the logistics industry in Mongolia, determined further measures and expected results, and considered the factors that determine the logistics performance index.
Yo. Manlaibayar (2014), Director of the Railway and Maritime Transport Policy Implementation and Coordination Bureau of the Ministry of Road and Transportation of Mongolia, explained the transportation routes through two neighboring countries to Mongolia's transit corridors and ports, calculating that Mongolia is not only a railway between two large countries, the main transit area for transportation, but also an important time-saving place for two neighboring countries. Professor P.K. Mukherjee (2014) explained in detail the names, formulas, definitions and agreements related to transportation logistics between the Mongolian government and the People's Republic of China . He emphasized the need to develop strategies and countermeasures aimed to improving  Mongolia's status, proposed alternative options for entering the sea through China, and focused on  infrastructure development. He also emphasized the positive impact of maritime transportation and  marine insurance on the economy and made relevant recommendations. Mongolian mid-term (2020-2025) sustainable development policy focuses on explaining the potential of professional organizations responsible for implementing the national policy objectives of the road sector in order to strengthen the implementation of the road development policy system, establish an innovative research structure in the sector, and computerize the database. Continuous operation, non-governmental organizations performing some government functions, establishing a system for planning roads and road facilities construction that closely cooperates with the sustainable development concept of Mongolia and population resettlement and industrialization policies.
Taking into account the quality of transportation infrastructure and the high cost of exports, transportation may limit the development of certain sectors, such as agriculture and tourism. But it was concluded that transportation is not a factor limiting economic growth. Recently, the road network has been continuously improved, most of the main roads have been paved, and the economic sectors that depend on transportation are also evolving. Transportation costs for mining operations may be high, but it is not important to the country. However, proper transportation issues, such as railway availability in the mining sector and remote areas, remain a challenge (

Analysis of the current situation of transportation service trade
Mongolia's economic growth depends on the development of the transportation sector, and its main business and people are largely dependent on the quality and accessibility of entering the country and abroad. As a landlocked country, Mongolia relies on neighboring countries for international trade by sea or rail. Trade facilitation is closely related to the development of transportation routes and the laws, regulations and systems of trade. Although the need to expand the network in the transportation sector is becoming more apparent, the ensuing demands for network management and sustainability are more obvious than ever. As the political and economic dynamics of the 1990s changed, the transition to political democracy and a market-based economic system put new pressure on the country's relatively small transportation network. Although the actual demand for transportation infrastructure is still very low compared to other Asian countries, the Mongolian economy has developed rapidly in recent years, mainly driven by mining and traditional animal husbandry. Insufficient transport infrastructure and services continue to restrict the growth of economic activities in remote areas such as the western and southern regions.
Driven by the scientific and technological revolution and economic globalization, service trade has achieved rapid development, the export structure has been accelerated, the scale of commercial presence is increasing, and the competition in various countries is becoming fiercer. The focus of global competition is shifting from trade in goods to trade in services. The level of development with service trade has become one of the important indicators of the country's competitiveness. Transportation service trade is one of the important components of China's service trade. Since the reform and opening up, China's transportation service trade has maintained a rapid development trend for a long time. After China's accession to the WTO, foreign trade has developed rapidly, and China has become the most important driving force for the development of world shipping. In recent years, China's total transportation service trade has increased significantly compared with 19 years ago. In the recent years, China's total transportation service trade has increased significantly compared with 19 years ago. However, the ratio of its average growth rate to the total value of service trade is gradually decreasing. China's total transportation import and export service industry increased from 14.14 billion USD in 2000 to 150.059 billion USD in 2018. From the overall situation, the growth rate is not stable, especially from 2010 to 2016 year by year. Since then, there has been a clear recovery trend. As of the end of 2018, the growth rate of total imports and exports rebounded to 15.79%, entering a new stage. The export volume was 4.68 billion USD in 2000 to 42.3 billion USD in 2018. In contrast, imports increased from 9.46 billion USD in 2000 to 108.29 billion USD in 2018, an increase of 11.45% in 19 years.

RCA index (Revealed Comparative Advantages)
The explicit comparative advantage index was proposed by Balasa in 1965 to explain international competitiveness, and then widely used in the field of international trade research. The RCA index represents the ratio of a country's product or service exports to the global export of that product or service divided by the proportion of the country's total exports of all services in the world's total exports of all services. In this article, if a specific product or service is a transportation service, the value of the total export value of the product or service is the total export of the service trade. Therefore, the calculation formula is as follows: In this formula, RCAti represents the comparative advantage index of the country's transportation service trade. Xti represents the country's exports of transportation services trade, represents the total exports of world transportation services trade. Xsi represents the export volume of the country's service trade, represents total export volume of service trade in the world. As shown in Table 3, China's RCA index is still at a relatively high level, and the average value of RCA is higher than that of the other five countries. Similar to China, Russia and Japan have high average trade in transportation services between 2000 and 2018, which shows that Russia and Japan have a comparative advantage in transportation service trade. The RCA of the United States and South Korea has been stable at around 0.4-0.6, which shows that although these countries have no obvious comparative advantage in the transportation service trade, the overall level is relatively stable. For Mongolia, from 2000 to 2018, the RCA value of the transportation service trade has always remained below 0.5, which shows that Mongolia's comparative advantage is very weak.

Empirical Analysis of Impacts on China and Mongolian Transport Service Trade of International Competitiveness
A. Variable selection It is regarded as a quantitative indicator of the competitiveness of China's and Mongolia's transportation services trade. Expressed by Y, unit: 100 million USD Export volume of goods Take the export volume of goods from China and Mongolia as the demand factor, expressed by X1, unit: 100 million USD Port cargo export volume Take the export volume of major ports in China and Mongolia as the main factor, expressed by X2, unit: ten thousand USD Number of employees in transportation services Take the staff of the transportation service industry of the two countries as the key factor of production, expressed by X3, unit: thousand people  It can be seen from the regression analysis table that the F statistic is significant, and Rsquared and Adjusted R-squared show good fit. Both X4 and X1 values are not important. Therefore, in order to eliminate multicollinearity between explanatory variables, so first, needs to calculate the correlation coefficient between each variable. According to the data in the table, there is a high correlation between ln(X4) and ln(X2), ln(X1) and ln(X3), and ln(X1) and ln(X4), so stepwise regression is used to eliminate multicollinearity. Through a separate regression, it can be seen that the export volume of China and Mongolia's transportation service trade is greatly affected by the export volume of merchandise trade, so a gradual regression has been gradually made. The following table shows the results of the first stepwise regression. The explanatory variables are introduced into the model to compare the fitting results and select the best linear combination. It is verified that the related ln(X1) and ln(X2), ln(X1) and ln(X3), ln(X1) and ln(X4), In(X2) and ln(X4) are used to replace ln( X1). These regression effects are not as good as the combination of ln(X2) and ln(X4). Therefore, Y = f(lnX2, lnX4) is the optimal linear combination, and the fitting results are shown in the following table.
The empirical analysis results show that: Under other conditions unchanged, the port freight export volume increased by 1%, and China and Mongolia's port freight export trade volume increased by 0.798%. When the opening of the transportation service industry in China and Mongolia increased by 1%, the export value of the transportation service trade increased by 1.232%. Therefore, the port exports of the two countries have a positive impact on the international competitiveness of the transportation service trade and the opening degree of the transportation service industry in China and Mongolia.
Conclusions. China's international competitiveness in transportation services trade is stronger than other countries, but its level is still less than 1. Mongolia's international average competitiveness in transportation services trade is particularly weak. The most influential factors for the national competitiveness of the transportation service trade between China and Mongolia in this article are the export volume of goods at the ports of China and Mongolia and the degree of openness of the transportation services between the two countries. 0.8% and 1.232%. Therefore, the Chinese and Mongolian governments may support the border trade between the two countries and improve the border trade conditions and infrastructure.